Flu Season Predictions
What kind of flu season is coming?
There is one flu season prediction that you are guaranteed to be right about.
Flu season is coming!
Flu Season Predictions
But what kind of flu season will it be?
No, I don’t have a crystal ball or anyway to 100% know what kind of flu season we will have, but there are some fairly good ways to make a well educated guess.
What ways?
“By examining flu trends observed in the Southern Hemisphere this past season, CDC can gain valuable insights into what flu activity might occur in the United States during the upcoming 2024-2025 Northern Hemisphere season.”
Southern Hemisphere Flu Season Could Provide Clues on Upcoming US Flu Season
Well, mostly we look at what kind of flu season the folks in the Southern Hemisphere just had.
Sometimes, but not always, countries in the Northern Hemisphere will have to deal with the same flu strains and the same intensity of a flu season that was just seen in the Southern Hemisphere.
“The seasonal influenza patterns in the U.S. were highly correlated with those in Canada, Australia, Chile, and the United Kingdom.”
Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries
Interestingly, it is thought that most new flu strains originate in Asian countries that experience endemic flu. These are countries with more tropical or subtropical climates, so they don’t have typical winter flu seasons. That gives flu viruses even more time to ciruculate and evolve into new strains.
Then international travel helps these flu strains spread all over the world, giving us our flu seasons.
That’s why we skipped flu season during much of the COVID pandemic.
In addition to wearing masks and the lockdowns, a big factor for the lack of a flu season may have been the lack of international travel. (No, it wasn’t because we reclassified flu cases as COVID cases!)
This Year’s Flu Season Prediction
So what’s going to happen this year?
Unfortunately, we might be in for an early and fairly bad flu season!
That’s because Australia just had a really bad flu season...
A really bad flu season that may have been because very few folks got vaccinated this year!
Flu Season Preparation
So now that you know what might be coming, you know what you need to do, right?
Get yourself and your family a flu vaccine!
“Everyone 6 months and older in the United States, with rare exception, should get an influenza (flu) vaccine every season.”
Key Facts About Seasonal Flu Vaccine
From standard flu shots and the nasal spray flu vaccine to high dose flu shots and egg free vaccines, there are options for everyone.
And no, it’s not too early to get vaccinated and protected.
“For the 2024-2025 flu season, vaccine manufacturers estimate supplying the U.S. with 148 million doses.”
Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Supply for the U.S. 2024-2025 Influenza Season
Also of interest, manufacturers are producing much less flu vaccine this season than they have in years. After peaking at 194 million doses in 2020, we are now back down to production levels not seen since the 2016-17 flu season…
While that should still mean plenty of flu vaccine to vaccinate everyone who wants to be protected in an average flu season, if flu season starts early or becomes intense, the decreased supply could be an issue.
And since there is no way to predict what impact that will have, I’ll be getting my flu vaccine soon!
How about you?
References
Southern Hemisphere Flu Season Could Provide Clues on Upcoming US Flu Season. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2023-2024/southern-hemisphere-flu.htm
Wen F, Bedford T, Cobey S. Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2). Proc Biol Sci. 2016 Sep 14;283(1838):20161312. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2016.1312. PMID: 27629034; PMCID: PMC5031657.
Choi SB, Kim J, Ahn I. Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries. PLoS One. 2019 Nov 25;14(11):e0220423. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220423. PMID: 31765386; PMCID: PMC6876883.
Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)—United States, 2024-25. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/acip/summary/summary-recommendations.htm
Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Supply for the U.S. 2024-2025 Influenza Season. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaxsupply.htm