The Latest Measles Outbreak in Texas
Ten unvaccinated kids have measles in Texas and that's just the start...
There is a big measles outbreak in Texas.
“…vaccine coverage among a population needs to be extremely high, typically exceeding 90%–95%, in order to prevent a measles outbreak in a school or similar setting. However, the latest numbers from Texas indicate a serious downward trend in vaccine coverage to the point where there is a high risk that measles outbreaks will return.
Peter Hotez
And that’s no surprise to most folks...
The only real surprise is that it hasn’t happen sooner! After all, the last big measles outbreak in Texas, when 21 people got sick, was in 2013. That outbreak was linked to the Eagle Mountain International Church near Dallas.
Since then, there have been at least 47 cases of measles in Texas and one small outbreak. In 2019, six people, including at least 3 children developed measles in El Paso.
The Latest Measles Outbreak in Texas
And now, as vaccination rates have continued to drop and measles rates have continued to rise around the world, we have a new outbreak in Texas.
A new outbreak that has the potential to be even bigger than the 2013 Texas outbreak.
A new outbreak that started with an unvaccinated school age child in Gaines County Texas on January 29th.
A new outbreak that has quickly grown to ten unvaccinated children, including at least two who are under age five years and seven who have required hospitalization.
“Measles vaccination coverage in certain Texas counties is dangerously close to dropping below the 95% coverage rate necessary to ensure herd immunity and prevent measles outbreaks. For instance, in Gaines County in West Texas, the percentage of exemptions is now 4.83%…”
Peter Hotez
What else do we know about this outbreak?
Besides that fact that children in Gaines County have low vaccination rates and all of the cases so far are unvaccinated, we basically know nothing.
Most importantly, we don’t know where folks have been exposed or how many have been exposed.
We also don’t know if the cases are in one or more families or one or more classrooms.
Why does that matter?
If the cases are in different classrooms or schools, then that suggests much more widespread exposure already and a bigger outbreak that will be harder to control.
Still, we can be hopeful that the outbreak won’t be too big simply because it is occurring in an area of very low population density - 10 people per square mile. Compare that to a big city like Dallas, which has over 2000 people per square mile!
On the other hand, we should look at this outbreak as just the beginning of what we can expect this year. It is a signal of what is to come - more and more measles as vaccination rates are dropping, rates of measles are increasing around the world, and anti-vaccine folks are taking over our public health systems.
So what can you do to protect yourself and your family?
Be sure that y’all are vaccinated and protected with two doses of the MMR vaccine.
References
Hotez PJ (2016) Texas and Its Measles Epidemics. PLoS Med 13(10): e1002153. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002153
State Health Officials Urge Vigilance As Additional Measles Cases Are Identified. Health alert was issued on Jan. 23, 2025. https://www.dshs.texas.gov/news-alerts/state-health-officials-urge-vigilance-additional-measles-cases-are-identified
Measles Outbreak. https://www.dshs.texas.gov/news-alerts/measles-outbreak
South Plains Public Health District. Measles Exposure Updates. https://southplainshealth.org/measles-exposure-page/
Lubbock Public Health Confirms Measles Outbreak in Gaines County, Increased Risk for Unvaccinated Individuals. https://ci.lubbock.tx.us/news/1738888720-lubbock-public-health-confirms-measles-outbreak-in-gaines-county-increased-risk-for-unvaccinated-individuals